Achieving Monthly Lunar Landings: A Strategic Guide for NASA

Overview

NASA envisions a future where humanity returns to the Moon not just occasionally, but on a monthly schedule. The target: 21 surface landings within two and a half years. This ambitious cadence requires a fundamental shift in how the agency acquires lunar landers, resolves persistent technical failures, and manages its industrial partners. Past attempts have shown that three out of four recent US Moon landing missions ended in failure, underscoring the need for systemic changes. This guide outlines the critical steps NASA must take—from procurement reforms to supply chain oversight—to turn the dream of regular lunar access into reality.

Prerequisites

Infrastructure and Supply Chain Readiness

• A reliable network of contractors capable of producing multiple lander variants (both human-rated and robotic).
• Streamlined logistics for delivering payloads to launch sites and integrating them with rockets.
• Modular lander designs that share components across missions to reduce costs and lead times.

Technical and Managerial Competencies

• Enhanced failure analysis protocols to learn from past mishaps.
• Stronger government oversight teams embedded in contractor facilities.
• Agile budgeting processes that allow rapid contracting for new lander builds.

Step-by-Step Implementation Guide

Step 1: Overhaul Lunar Lander Procurement

The traditional approach of awarding a single, multi-year contract for a handful of landers cannot support 21 missions in 30 months. Instead, NASA must adopt a portfolio acquisition strategy that includes:

• Multiple fixed-price contracts with different vendors for small batches of landers (e.g., 3–5 units per contract).
• Incentives for early delivery tied to milestone payments.
• Separate procurement tracks for human-rated landers under the Human Landing System (HLS) program and for robotic/cargo landers.

For example, SpaceX and Blue Origin already hold HLS contracts; parallel agreements should be made with smaller providers for robotic missions using proven technologies like those from Intuitive Machines or Astrobotic.

Step 2: Rectify Landing System Failures

Recent history shows that three of the last four US lunar landing attempts encountered critical issues—ranging from navigation errors to propulsion malfunctions. To fix this, NASA must implement rigorous pre-launch verification tests that simulate the lunar environment. Specific actions include:

1. Redundant sensors and control systems on every lander, with cross-checks against orbital data.
2. Dedicated test flights to validate descent and landing algorithms before committing to payload missions.
3. Shared anomaly database across all commercial partners to propagate lessons learned.

By addressing the root causes of recent failures, NASA can raise the success rate to at least 90%—necessary for a monthly rhythm.

Step 3: Improve Oversight of the Industrial Base

Contractor delays and quality escape have plagued NASA programs. To counter this, the agency must station resident inspectors at key subcontractor facilities that manufacture lander engines, avionics, and landing gear. These inspectors should track progress against a master schedule with automated alerts for critical path delays. Additionally, quarterly reviews with senior executives from each contractor—backed by penalty clauses for missed milestones—will enforce accountability.

Step 4: Manage Supply Chain for Timely Delivery

The supply chain for lunar landers involves hundreds of specialized components (e.g., throttable thrusters, radiation-hardened computers). To avoid bottlenecks, NASA should:

• Create a central inventory database of all parts required for the 21 landers, with lead times and alternative sources.
• Pre-order long-lead items (such as propulsion valves and solar arrays) up to 18 months in advance.
• Develop second sourcing agreements for critical components, ensuring that a single supplier failure doesn't halt the entire campaign.

Step 5: Integrate Robotic and Cargo Missions with Crewed Landings

Robotic landers can scout landing zones, deploy resource extraction demonstrators, and test survival systems during the two-week lunar night. These must be synchronized with crewed HLS missions to avoid conflicts. The integration steps include:

1. Define a master sequence of all 21 landings, alternating between robotic surveys and crewed sorties.
2. Allocate payload capacity on robotic landers for cargo (e.g., habitat modules, power systems) that will support future Artemis base operations.
3. Establish communication relay protocols so robotic landers can serve as backup beacons for crewed vehicles.

By treating the two lander classes as an integrated system, NASA maximizes science and operational return per mission.

Common Mistakes

• Underestimating supply chain volatility: Relying on a single vendor for critical components can cascade delays across multiple landers. Always identify secondary sources early.
• Ignoring past failure data: Assuming each mission is unique ignores patterns. Create a centralized failure database and mandate quarterly reviews.
• Procurement rigidity: Using traditional cost-plus contracts for high-rate lunar landings rewards delays. Switch to fixed-price with performance bonuses.
• Insufficient pre-flight testing: Relying on simulations alone has led to landing failures. Require at least two uncrewed test flights of any new lander design before operational use.
• Poor inter-mission coordination: Sending robotic landers to the same site as crewed landings without deconfliction can create collision risks. Use a dedicated mission planning office to sequence every landing.

Summary

NASA’s goal of monthly lunar landings is achievable but demands a wholesale rethink of procurement, failure rectification, industrial oversight, and supply chain management. By shifting to portfolio-based contracts, embedding inspectors, pre-ordering long-lead parts, and integrating robotic and crewed missions, the agency can overcome the failures that have plagued recent attempts. With these steps, the vision of 21 Moon landings in two and a half years transitions from ambitious to attainable.