How to Advocate for a Ban on 'Under' Bets in Sports Prediction Markets

Introduction

In recent years, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have allowed users to place bets on whether a professional athlete will underperform or get injured—known as betting the "under". Player unions from the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, and MLS have jointly called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to ban such bets, citing abusive and harassing behavior toward athletes and their families. This how-to guide outlines the step-by-step process for effectively advocating for a ban on 'under' betting, drawing from the unions' approach. Whether you're a union representative, a player advocate, or a concerned fan, these steps will help you navigate regulatory action and protect athlete well-being.

What You Need

• Coalition of player unions – At minimum, contacts from major sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, MLS).
• Legal expertise – A lawyer or legal team familiar with the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC rulemaking.
• Evidence of harm – Documented cases of harassment, threats, or financial abuse linked to 'under' bets.
• Letter template – A formal comment draft addressing the CFTC's request for public input.
• Media and public relations support – To amplify your message and pressure regulators.
• CFTC contact information – Official channels for submitting comments and tracking deadlines.
• Budget for time and resources – Advocacy can take months; ensure adequate staffing.

Step-by-Step Guide

1. Step 1: Understand the Problem and Define Your Stance

   Before taking action, thoroughly research how 'under' bets work on prediction markets. An 'under' bet wagers that a player will have stats below a certain threshold or will be injured during a game. These bets directly tie financial incentives to an athlete's underperformance or physical harm. Gather data on how these markets operate, their volume, and documented instances of players being harassed by bettors who lose money. For example, unions have reported abusive messages aimed at players and their families. Define your core argument: that 'under' betting violates the spirit of fair play, endangers player safety, and invites gambling-related harassment.

2. Step 2: Assemble a Coalition of Player Unions

   Unified advocacy carries more weight. Reach out to the heads of the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA), NFL Players Association (NFLPA), Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA), NHL Players' Association (NHLPA), and Major League Soccer Players Association (MLSPA). Schedule a joint meeting to discuss the issue. Emphasize that all leagues face similar risks. A coalition letter signed by all major unions demonstrates industry-wide concern to the CFTC. In the actual example, these five unions jointly sent a letter to the CFTC, which is a powerful precedent for your efforts.

3. Step 3: Gather Evidence of Harm to Athletes

   Compile specific examples of how 'under' betting has led to harassment, threats, or mental health issues among players. Survey union members to collect anonymous testimonials. Also, examine social media posts, public reports, and news articles. The unions’ letter cited "abusive and harassing behavior" – you need concrete cases to back this up. This evidence will be crucial for legal arguments and media campaigns. Ensure records are properly documented with dates, platforms, and severity.

4. Step 4: Draft a Formal Comment Letter to the CFTC

   When the CFTC issues a request for comment on prediction market regulations (as it did in this story), you have a window to submit an official response. Your letter should:

   • Identify the comment docket number and deadline.
   • Explain the specific danger of 'under' bets on player performance and injury.
   • Propose that the CFTC ban such contracts under its authority to prevent "manipulation or abuse."
   • Include evidence of harassment and potential market manipulation (e.g., bettors targeting player health).
   • Call for "appropriate regulations" to protect athletes and their families.

   Have a lawyer review the letter for legal soundness. The unions' letter explicitly asked for a ban on 'unders' and cited the need for safeguards.

   

5. Step 5: Submit the Comment and Track CFTC Action

   Submit your comment via the CFTC’s official electronic comment portal (www.cftc.gov). Include all supporting documents. After submission, monitor the CFTC’s public docket for responses from other stakeholders, such as the prediction platforms themselves. You may need to submit a rebuttal if opposing comments arise. Keep records of all submissions and deadlines. The CFTC may take months to issue a final rule; follow up with agency staff if possible.

6. Step 6: Amplify Advocacy Through Media and Public Pressure

   Beyond the formal comment, use press releases, social media campaigns, and interviews to raise awareness. Coordinate with the unions' communications teams to release a joint statement. Pitch stories to sports and business journalists (as seen with Sports Business Journal and The Verge). Public pressure can influence the CFTC’s decision-making. Highlight athlete testimonials and data to show the human impact. Engage fan bases through petitions or awareness drives.

7. Step 7: Monitor Outcomes and Plan Next Steps

   After the CFTC’s comment period closes, track whether the agency proposes a rule to ban 'under' bets. If the CFTC does not act, the coalition may consider litigation, congressional lobbying, or state-level regulation. Continue to document any new incidents of harassment. In the actual case, the unions’ letter is part of an ongoing effort; similar persistence may be required. Celebrate small wins, such as increased media scrutiny or platforms voluntarily ceasing 'under' bets.

Tips for Success

• Act quickly on CFTC deadlines. Be ready to submit comments as soon as a request is published. Missing the window can set you back years.
• Leverage athlete influence. Having star players speak out personally can generate significant media coverage.
• Stay united. A fragmented front weakens the message. Ensure all unions agree on the core demands before going public.
• Prepare for pushback. Prediction market operators may argue that banning 'unders' limits free markets. Have counterarguments ready—focus on player safety and integrity of sport.
• Document everything. Keep a timeline of events, copies of all communications, and a record of harassment incidents for future legal or legislative action.
• Engage fans and media carefully. Frame the issue as protecting players from gambling-related harm, not as censorship. Use emotional yet factual storytelling.

By following these steps, you can effectively advocate for a ban on 'under' bets, helping to safeguard athletes from harassment and preserve the integrity of professional sports.